General

No. The WNBA has very little attachment unlike college basketball. Most people won't know about Reese once she's drafted. Clark likely could make more in college under NIL than she will in the WNBA. She should take a hard look at that big 3 offer.

Maybe next year to see how Clark does in that atmosphere, but I think the luster will wear off

The WNBA has some exceptional players and nobody is really watching. Clark is special and will draw more eyes for a bit I think, but I don't see her really changing things. Part of her appeal was the records she was breaking this past year. In the WNBA it's going to be several years before she would make that kind of news again, and by then I don't think people will be paying attention any more.

Remember Ms. Triple Double from a few years ago (Ionescu)? I couldn't even tell you what team she is on or if she has made an All-Star appearance.

She (Sabrina Ionescu) did a 3 point competition with Steph Curry this year during the NBA all-star weekend that I think was the most viewed part of all-star weekend IIRC. I know she missed basically all of her rookie season, I think she's been an all-star since then.

What's really damning to the league is all the former stars bagging on Clark trying to downplay her collegiate accomplishments so as to not tarnish their own. It's stupid to intentionally sabotage the biggest potential growth of the league over jealousy.

So I honestly think WNBA is prepped for a breakthrough, though not at all close to what the NCAA numbers were, but compared to where they have been for 20+ years. Good news is I think the NCAA numbers were more about casual audiences liking a good story than it being any sort of attachment to college basketball or basketball in general. Now, in order for my predictions to be right, Clark needs to be like the women's LeBron. She needs to come out at an all-star level with clear visions of potential GOATness her rookie season.

WNBA has at least a few story lines going right now. Las Vegas is back to back champs looking to make a dynasty. For the first time in WNBA history, they have sold out their season ticket packages. NY Liberty have a stacked team, Breanna Stewart (NY) vs Aja Wilson(LV) might be the best current rivalry in the WNBA. Mercury can really push a "one more for Taurasi". And Griner has a story for the rest of her career... they just have to figure out how to make a giant black lesbian a relatable and sympathetic character. Seattle Storm made big free agent moves, though they aren't going to get any of the coveted rookies, but could be a serious contender. They traded their 4th spot for a 2026 pick and some scrub. Connecticut is also looking good. And I hate their name so much. Sun. Singular. Like a new paper. Not like the Phoenix Suns, which are plural. Each of their players is a star. But Connecticut, only a singular star. 1 sun.

And the WNBA really benefits from timing. The draft is 4/15, pre-season starts 5/3, regular season starts 5/14. This will still be fresh by then.

So, specifically what my prediction is and what I am thinking success looks like: In 2023, WNBA regular season average viewership was 505k regular season, WNBA on ABC games averaged 627k. 36M unique viewers, all-star game averaging 850k, total live attendance of 1,587,488 all numbers from here https://www.wnba.com/news/2023-season-record-break...
I am predicting regular season viewership average of 750k, WNBA on ABC games average 1M. 40M unique viewers. All-star game averaging 1M, if Caitlin is in the all-star game and they like get Steph to do a 3 point contest with her they hit 2M during that segment. Live attendance, 1,650,000. Finals I am guessing at least 1.5M, but a decent chance of like 2.5M if it is a good series, like goes to game 6 or 7 and there have been at least a couple of good games in the series.

As I understand they have a number of TV deals expiring next 2 years. From what I've read, they currently make something like $60m for the broadcast rights that expire in 2025. Coming out of the 2023 season, the number they were shooting for in 2025 was $100m for the next TV rights deal. If they get to the numbers I think they will, that could easily be like $200m. If they only hit $100m, that still probably for the first time turns them profitable. Like $100M i bet gets NBA not subsidizing out of need (they might still technically spend some for cross brand advertising and the likes, but not the $10-20m/year like it is now). It probably still doesn't get chartered flights (estimated $25M/year). But it would get top salaries from like $250k up to like $400k. And would get more advertising, more more trainers and what not for each team. So improvements, but not at all what the players are wanting. $200m/year probably gets them chartered planes, the first $1M salary and the likes. But this is all me talking out of my ass and not part of my official prediction.

I dont know but I recently watched extended highlights of some of the NCAA tournament as well as some random Caitlyn Clark videos, and I was blown away how good she is. Not just her, overall the quality was pretty high and pleasantly surprised me, but she’s box office for sure

Well, the WNBA is banking on Clark. It's not often the tram picking first gets the most televised games. She better get used to being the villain amongst her cohorts, cause the claws are staying out.

Some of the dudes that play in the WNBA have very attractive girlfriends/wives...

BlueJava wrote:

what

Lol

WNBA draft had 2.4M viewers, ~1/2 as many as the NBA draft. That is a 307% increase from 2023 which had 572k viewers (and was the second most viewed draft, after 2004 with 601k viewers).

Been trying to familiarize myself with the rest of this class.
Brink and Jackson will both do well. LA will be a good team in a few years, especially if either of them get a bit better at 3s. Both have potential.

Cardoso I think is going to bust. She moves ok off ball, and she's a sneaky offensive rebounder. No post game, defense didn't seem very good, seemed to me she was getting away with a lot of fouls in the tournament by not going straight up and down on block attempts. Lots of contact she initiated I felt. She's the Sam Bowie of the draft. Reese, I dunno. I feel like she could either rely a lot on athleticism for her game, and lose that advantage in the WNBA / already be past her quickest physically. If she remains quicker than the opponent and able to just beat her opponent off the dribble, I think she will end up really good. She has a solid post game, good defense.

Alissa Pili is interesting. She dominated Cardoso regular season in a losing effort. If this is the 84 Draft, she's Charles Barkley. She's a big Samoan girl that can move her weight around. If she's able to shoot above tall defenders more skilled than Cardoso, she'll do well.

The issue with the WNBA is the skills are so much worse than even high school basketball, it can never really gain traction.

That's cool that Clark was a good college player but most people just don't want to watch sports at not even close to the highest level, it sort of just becomes a bit of a charity.

If they get a player that can straight dominate the WNBA like Clark did in college then you might get some interest sort of like when Rhonda Rousey was unstoppable in MMA, but otherwise I still don't even see the league being solvent let alone popular. I think it loses like $10M per year?

It's just so slow and unathletic compared to the mens' side. I'd watch like the WNBA champs play against some high school men's state champs though like for a fun, something like that might be cool.

I truly dont understand the complaints I keep hearing about WNBA salaries being so low. It's all about supply/demand. IIRC , the NBA has had to supplement the WNBA with income since inception (maybe this has changed, I dont know?). But if the sport doesnt make any money, how can they pay the players more? I hear people say it's sexist, etc which is just nonsense. If, for example, the NBA brings in billions a year while the WNBA loses money - it's just common sense they wont make huge salaries. If I had some super amazing skill but it made no money, how could I demand that I be paid millions of dollars?

It's just a loud minority who say that. I think almost everyone agrees if anything they're overpaid considering they don't generate a profit for their own league.

And the WNBA is looking at expanding... seriously?

sa330206 wrote:

I think it's more about the establishment of men's sports being so entrenched in our nation's culture. The NBA has been around for close to 80 years at this point, before most if not all of the userson this site were born. By contrast, many of us were already adults by the time the WNBA played their first game in 1997.

Outside of the tech world, it's a pretty rare and extraordinary tale when the upstart nobody completely upends the establishment.

In the sports world it takes Saudi Oil kind of money to even make a dent.

Not really, I mean the UFC is a latecomer as well as other things Cube's The Big Three, all of which do better financially than the WNBA.

People will watch anything entertaining new or old, problem is the WNBA just lacks the talent of men's sports. You can't put a product that almost nobody watches where the competition is worse than high school boys and just subsidize it with zero profit and expect that it will succeed.

The product is the problem not anything else.

See also how well women's national soccer team does and women's UFC as well, those are sports where the product also isn't as good as the men's side but compelling enough to get interest. WNBA is just straight up boring with no national pride implications.

I've started becoming more interested in Women's basketball soley because the NBA is kind of becoming a freakshow. NBA players are getting taller on average, and i've started finding some of the games a bit boring to watch. When every player on the court is a giant and every single player is a threat from the three point line, alot of the nuance and "art" of the game gets lost.

Take Wemby for example. That dude is so tall that he can dunk without jumping. Watching him play is fascinating, for sure, but as more and more players get over the 7 foot mark, the way the game works is changing in a way that I personally don't enjoy.

Women's basketball is more about the fundamentals, because the athletes aren't as physically gifted. I think there is room for people who miss the older, more team oriented style of basketball to gain traction.

I also think that the newer stars of the Women's game like Clark could inspire more women to watch the WNBA, which is really the demographic that they are failing to capture.

It will probably never reach the level of the NBA, but I do think there is merit in having the WNBA continue to be a thing, if nothing else to encourage young girls to keep playing a sport they love.

Wemby is a very interesting example to bring up since that dude can handle, shoot, assist and do it all having been an international player from France, and actually he's an amazing passer with great fundamentals and art.

People bring up "fundamentals" but I mean I don't see the WNBA have great handles or amazing passing. They don't dunk because they can't and the low scores isn't amazing defense it's lack of skill. Which fundamentals are better?

Having said that if you feel there's more parity in the WNBA or something like that I can understand it and I think they do have a few fans, if Clark can actually dominate the WNBA they may see an uptick, but she would need lik LeBron levels over the competition to do that and I'm not sure she's up for that. Would be cool though to see.

Yeah Wemby is amazing, but will the NBA be interesting when each team has a couple of Wembys? Kevin Durant is another example. Great player, but boring as fudge to watch, because he is just so tall that he can shoot over anyone. I personally think that as the average height of the NBA player grows, the game will become less fun to watch. As more and more "unicorns" come into the league, the game is going to become boring because the goal is staying at 10 ft.

In fairness, the WNBA games are also 8 minutes shorter. If you look at points per minute scored, the WNBA isn't that far off the NBA.

The NBA is largely driven by it's superstars, so I think there is a chance Clark and some of the other up and coming Women's players get popular enough to move the needle. Caityln Clark is far and away the most popular female basketball player of all time, so I could see some of that bolstering the WNBA.

Of course, the WNBA isn't going to rival the NBA ever in terms of viewership, but I think there is a chance CC at least brings some additional eyes to the sport.

WNBA is just as trash as the NBA .. Women sports are poyat the college level because of the coaching, passing, teamwork, slashing, off the ball screens, etc.... The WNBA is trash because all that goes away with the egos, logo shots, trying to dunk , tattoos and everything else they do to mimic MEN ... Clark isn't the savior you all hope for and in fact by this time next year you won't remember her... The same girls have to play overseas cause nobody attends WNBA games and nobody is going to start... When Clark starts rocking tats and holding her wife's hand she will be forgotten by the masses like Griner...

what’s wrong with tattoos?

.... and "holding her wife's hand"?

PS: I used to collect sports cards growing up. It was something my dad and I did together. The only newer cards I've purchased since then have been from non-major sports (mostly Formula 1) and women's athletics. I recently picked up my first WNBA card, which was a graded rookie card of A'ja Wilson.

https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/18736405/cand...


I wonder how it will be for Clark who has a boyfriend and likely won't go the route of trying to look and act like a man as BJ said. Wiggins has backed off some on her claims, but it didn't come out of no where.

You've already heard many former stars' jealously of Clark, and I'm sure there will be many current players who try to diminish or make an example of her through hard fouls as Candice stated. Absolute stupidity though as CC is one person who could elevate the status of the WNBA immensely, instead a portion of the league will likely go the route of gradeschool girls.

These are professional athletes, Not girls going to class all day... She will get humbled... Look up Glenn "Big Dogg" Rice and that he averaged 40 ppg in college but didn't achieve anything close to that in the NBA and in fact wasn't even a top 3 player of his own draft...Everyone who thinks CC is Jordan with a vag are people who don't follow the sport..

She’s not getting humbled by 40 year old women with robo knees. I think the opposite will likely happen.

BlueJava wrote:



???

I don't understand this take. Jordan didn't go 1 or 2. Clark isn't Jordan. They are completely different players in their respective leagues. Clark's ceiling in the WNBA isn't the equivalent of Jordan at this point, it's Curry. Odds of her achieving that rests on many factors and is daunting. The fact the some of the face of the league are hindering that publicity is shockingly short sited for them.

Curry!!!

You are correct... These players (all of them) idolize Curry and play like him.. I hope you all are just as excited for JuJu from USC who set scoring records as a freshman and will eclipse CC records as long as she stays healthy... Many more girls will setting new scoring records with the pace of the game now and how it's offense driven... I'm probably going over many heads here because you probably turned on college basketball because FOX told you the Messiah has arrived.

Whoever put her in heels for the draft should be arrested cause I can't unsee that...See you guys at the game next season 🤣🤣...

BlueJava wrote:

Oh. This is a political thing I guess? Makes sense how everyone is absolutely batcrap brainwashed over this.