KCPenguins
7-Jan-2022(#1)Other thread died. Playoffs about to happen. Not a ton of seeding drama outside of a couple games. Chiefs pissed away the 1 seed, although it was entertaining. Chargers-Raiders interesting. Rams-9rs. AB is a nut job. Anywho...
Thoughts on current awards lines (this is if you understand money lines)... I see what I think is a fairly low risk bet. Rodgers is currently -400 for MVP. National media is pushing hard for Rodgers being unanimous MVP. I think Brady has a chance, but Rodgers ain't doing anything to hurt his case this weekend, and Brady ain't setting records or taking the 1 seed. Enter my #2 guy, Kupp. He's likely winning the triple crown, and could beat CJ's single season yardage record. A $100 bet on Rodgers covers any losses on a $30 bet on Kupp. Rodgers wins, you get pocket change. Kupp wins you win a few hundred. Brady wins and you lose. Taylor has an outside chance, but he's not breaking any records or the 2000 yard mark in a 17 game season. The other bet, which might be better is bet 30 on Kupp for MVP and 100 for OpotY. He wins the triple crown and he should get one of them. Only think stopping him is if Chase gets 3 more TDs than Kupp, or Taylor has a historic game.
I budget $100 each season for bets. Haven't placed any this season. Thoughts from any casual betters?
(Also intend for this to be the general NFL thread for the post season.. not just betting thoughts though that's welcome)
Edit: Generic betting disclaimer: Bet for fun, don't bet what you can't lose, seek help if you have a problem, any thoughts in this thread are not representative of GameTZ or @Bill (lest he states something), this is not intended as financial advice., etc.
KCPenguins
16-Mar-2023(#241)Man, Orlando Brown Jr signed with the Bengels for $3-4M less per year than what the Chiefs signed their new swing tackle... and even more of a diferential from what they offered him last offseason. Brown's father told him to be a LT to get that LT money, but RT money has gotten much closer to LT money in recent years, so much so being a top 5 right tackle is a good amount better than being a mid-tier LT like Brown is getting paid. I wonder what the Bears would've offered Brown at RT?
I'm not a fan of the contract the Chiefs gave Taylor, but I don't really know much about him. Reports are he's terrible at run blocking, very good at pass protection. At this point the Chiefs front office has earned the benefit of a doubt from me.
back4more
* 16-Mar-2023(#242)I hate that the Jags let Taylor get away. He might not be the best run blocker but he was dependable. This is from PFT…
“Taylor was a Jaguars second-round pick in 2019 and he’s started every game that Jacksonville has played over the last four seasons. The right tackle did not miss an offensive snap during his first three years in the league and missed just 35 of them during the 2022 season.”
KCPenguins
27-Mar-2023(#243)Lamar tweeted he officially requested a trade. I don't see this working out well, similar to Rodgers and GB. Not that many jobs open at this point, and the jobs that are open are by teams that are unlikely to give up 2 firsts. Maybe they can do a trade including other players with a pick or two and not claim him off the tag to lesson the damage on giving up 2 firsts.
This feels like Rodgers before he got his big contract, and I'm guessing Jackson stays in Bal for the near term.
Are Browns fans enjoying the fact that this is likely due to their gross contract they gave the sex predator? When the Chiefs lost Hill Raider fans were going bonkers that it was their doing by dumping truckloads of money to Adams. I'm fine with how that turned out.
KCPenguins
17-Apr-2023(#244)Jalen Hurts is now the "highest paid player" in the NFL. Will be interesting to hear the actual details. Wonder what Lamar is thinking?
Kommie
17-Apr-2023(#245)Lamar is a dumbass for wanting/thinking he gets a fully guaranteed deal like Watson.
KCPenguins
* 17-Apr-2023(#246)Agreed. He needs to hire an agent, or at least get an opinion outside his inner circle. If they don't get anything done, I bet he plays on the tag and sits out for any little injury. If he does, the bridge will officially be burned in Balt.
It'd be a shame for him if he ends up like Orlando Brown Jr by taking a significantly smaller contract than what his then team offered and end up on a different team.
KCPenguins
* 24-Apr-2023(#247)Rodgers trade about done (but since it's Rodgers I'm sure something will stir drama).
The Jets receive Rodgers, the Packers' 2023 first-round pick (No. 15 overall) and a fifth-round pick (No. 170) in exchange for New York's 2023 first-rounder (No. 13), 2023 second-round (No. 42) and sixth-round (No. 207) picks, as well as a conditional 2024 second-round selection that could become a first if Rodgers plays in at least 65 percent of the Jets' snaps this year.
Packers got more than I thought they would with the weird way the NFL values vets. I wonder if the Pack pay part of his salary?
Patriots should be heavy favorites for bottom in the division.
incubus421
24-Apr-2023(#248)Everyone counting the Patriots out is exactly what the Patriots will love about the upcoming season. I'm comfortable with the Mac Jones and Bill O'Brien combo...if only we had a true WR1. There's still time. Even so, there isn't any reason to think the Pats offense will play worse then they did last year and the defense should remain a top 7 or 8 defense.
Personally, I think both the Bills and Dolphins lose a little steam this season as compared to last year. While the Jets gain momentum. The AFC East will be very competitive this year.
mcorrado
25-Apr-2023(#249)Pats suck, and I say this as a pats fan. One of the least talented teams in the NFL. Bill B will still get you wins you don't deserve, so they'll never finish with a poor enough record to draft a viable QB.
Everyone saying Jwts are a legit SB threat seems premature. Roger's was awful mast year, AWFUL. QBR isn't everything, but he slotted in 27th, right behind Matt Ryan and just ahead of Russell Wilson and... Mac Jones.
Maybe Roger's becomes great again, but I don't believe there was any injury or anything to point to for his steep decline. Very possible his career as a top QB is over and he jusy collects 60 million the next two years from the Jets.
KCPenguins
27-Apr-2023(#250)Draft day! I don't follow college football much, but I love the draft and all the coverage.
incubus421
27-Apr-2023(#251)KCPenguins wrote:> Draft day! I don't follow college football much, but I love the draft and all the
> coverage.
Yep, I don't know much about the up-and-comers either. I think this first round draft class is weaker then in years past. I've heard talking heads say that only 5-10 players are truly worth a 1st round pick. It will be interesting to see if teams try to trade away their 1st pick.
Still, I took Friday off work to have a few friends over. We typically make an end of the week celebration out of it. Pizza and drinks tonight, casino day trip tomorrow, and more draft watching Friday evening. Should be fun.
KCPenguins
* 27-Apr-2023(#252)Lamar about to be the new highest paid player in the NFL... and reports are they may trade for D-hops.
shadyfozzie
27-Apr-2023(#253)It's amazing how the NFL just turned a boring thing like the draft and turn it into a Super Bowl-esque spectacle.
KCPenguins
27-Apr-2023(#254)Trades galore... DeMeco Ryans didn't look happy with the Stroud pick, was extatic with the next Anderson pick. Troubling sign for his tenure.
Feeb
27-Apr-2023(#255)KCPenguins wrote:> Trades galore... DeMeco Ryans didn't look happy with the Stroud pick, was extatic
> with the next Anderson pick. Troubling sign for his tenure.
He’s a defensive guy and Bama alum. He’s been after Anderson and pretty open about it.
KCPenguins
28-Apr-2023(#256)Feeb wrote:> KCPenguins wrote:
>> Trades galore... DeMeco Ryans didn't look happy with the Stroud pick, was extatic
>> with the next Anderson pick. Troubling sign for his tenure.
>
> He’s a defensive guy and Bama alum. He’s been after Anderson and pretty open
> about it.
I say it's a troubling sign for his tenure because it was obvious he wasn't on board with Stroud and yet the Texans picked him anyways. GM and HC need to be lock step.
KCPenguins
28-Apr-2023(#259)I'll be interested in seeing how this qb class turns out. Bryce Young sounds like a leader. Stroud not so much. (Based on post draft interviews) Both have great resumes.
Richardson is safe as even if he doesn't work out as QB1, they can still use him as a gadget player a la Taysom Hill.
Excited for rounds 2 & 3. Chiefs checked the box for one position of need with FAU. Now need someone to compete for RT, a WR, and DL. Then go for S, RB, and another WR.
KCPenguins
28-Apr-2023(#261)It will be interesting to hear his first interview after being drafted. I think that will tell you a lot on how well he will do in the NFL. It's being reported the Titans, Falcons and Raiders all tried trading back into the end of the first, and Pittsburg said they've had multiple offers to trade the first pick in the 2nd.
Kommie
28-Apr-2023(#262)So why was pick 32 not done day 1? Is this something new to create speculation and interest?
KCPenguins
28-Apr-2023(#263)Kommie wrote:> So why was pick 32 not done day 1? Is this something new to create speculation and
> interest?
Dolphins lost their 1st for tampering.
Kommie
28-Apr-2023(#264)What was the tampering again?
KCPenguins
28-Apr-2023(#265)Kommie wrote:> What was the tampering again?
They tried to lure Tom Brady and Sean Payton to their van with candy. (They apparently recruited both while they were under contract without permission and outside of the legal tampering period... if that even applied)
KCPenguins
11-May-2023(#266)Hopefully not true, but there is a rumor that there will be Peacock exclusive game not aired on NBC. If true that would certainly piss off a good portion of an already irked fan base. Guess we'll know officially soon enough.
I was a huge MLB fan. I quit following it slowly after the games all went to cable/satellite networks, and now I don't even know who are playoff contenders.
KCPenguins
15-May-2023(#267)Well, it's true. And not just a regular season game, it will also include a play-off game. Yay NFL...
KCPenguins
22-May-2023(#269)The NFL just approved to give the option to flex late in the season games to Thursday night. Huge blow to many fans and players. Also can't wait for them to flex a game where a key player is injured.
shadyfozzie
22-May-2023(#270)KCPenguins wrote:> The NFL just approved to give the option to flex late in the season games to Thursday
> night. Huge blow to many fans and players. Also can't wait for them to flex a game
> where a key player is injured.
They have to flex the game 28 days in advance, so...
KCPenguins
22-May-2023(#271)shadyfozzie wrote:> KCPenguins wrote:
>> The NFL just approved to give the option to flex late in the season games to Thursday
>> night. Huge blow to many fans and players. Also can't wait for them to flex
> a game
>> where a key player is injured.
>
> They have to flex the game 28 days in advance, so...
So if I buy tickets more than a month in advance, because you know you might have to put in for vacation for travel, book plane tix, and they flex it... tf are you supposed to do?
Kommie
23-May-2023(#272)The NFL is a business first. They don't really care
shadyfozzie
23-May-2023(#273)These are the games that can get flexed out:
Week 13: Seahawks at Cowboys
Week 14: Patriots at Steelers
Week 15: Chargers at Raiders
Week 16: Saints at Rams
Week 17: Jets at Browns.
There are a lot of rules that have to be implied before you can flex out a game:
The games are limited only to Weeks 13-17, the decision must be made no later than 28 days in advance of the game, there's a maximum of two Thursday night games that can be flexed out of the five options and, of course, the game has to warrant being flexed out of.
Looking at the schedule based on last year's performances, Saints/Rams and Jets/Browns look like the most likely games to be flexed, with the Pats/Steelers in a close 3rd.. The other 2 could be potential great games..
KCPenguins
* 23-May-2023(#275)Except they are flexing better games to a paid subscription service. How is that fan friendly? Kommie said it. This is all about $'s. This is not in the best interest of fans or players.
Feeb
23-May-2023(#276)KCPenguins wrote:> Except they are flexing better games to a paid subscription service. How is that
> fan friendly? Kommie said it. This is all about $'s. This is not in the best interest
> of fans or players.
It’s simple numbers. You’re placing more value on different fans’ situations. You don’t need to tell me it’s about money- this is obvious- but it is definitely an attempt at a better product and more sales of tv games to more fans. This has always been about selling the game to the highest bidder - nothing new. Thursday games are terrible for the players as well. That will likely never be considered.
Feeb
* 23-May-2023(#277)Citation of the 7%- not sure it’s actually true out of this guy’s mouth-
-But the determination the league and the owners have made is that, all of those people above who are impacted across those teams and cities equal a number that is far less than the number of people who will be watching on a screen somewhere. And that number is what matters.
"Very, very important point," Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said Monday when the inconvenience to the fans was mentioned. "Every owner in that room lives and breathes sensitivity to those fans. But only 7% of our fans have ever been inside a stadium. Seven. Percent. So you've got a lot of fans -- a huge majority of the fans that are out there -- that this is good for them."-
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-owners-deci...NFL is a TV show for millions with a live option for thousands. The part of the equation that really should matter the most is the players who need to perform / earn- Thursday is a nightmare. NFLPA has to be stringently opposed to this. The set of conditions for a game to actually be flexed into Thursday is pretty large- so it may not happen at all anyway.
