KCPenguins
7-Jan-2022(#1)Other thread died. Playoffs about to happen. Not a ton of seeding drama outside of a couple games. Chiefs pissed away the 1 seed, although it was entertaining. Chargers-Raiders interesting. Rams-9rs. AB is a nut job. Anywho...
Thoughts on current awards lines (this is if you understand money lines)... I see what I think is a fairly low risk bet. Rodgers is currently -400 for MVP. National media is pushing hard for Rodgers being unanimous MVP. I think Brady has a chance, but Rodgers ain't doing anything to hurt his case this weekend, and Brady ain't setting records or taking the 1 seed. Enter my #2 guy, Kupp. He's likely winning the triple crown, and could beat CJ's single season yardage record. A $100 bet on Rodgers covers any losses on a $30 bet on Kupp. Rodgers wins, you get pocket change. Kupp wins you win a few hundred. Brady wins and you lose. Taylor has an outside chance, but he's not breaking any records or the 2000 yard mark in a 17 game season. The other bet, which might be better is bet 30 on Kupp for MVP and 100 for OpotY. He wins the triple crown and he should get one of them. Only think stopping him is if Chase gets 3 more TDs than Kupp, or Taylor has a historic game.
I budget $100 each season for bets. Haven't placed any this season. Thoughts from any casual betters?
(Also intend for this to be the general NFL thread for the post season.. not just betting thoughts though that's welcome)
Edit: Generic betting disclaimer: Bet for fun, don't bet what you can't lose, seek help if you have a problem, any thoughts in this thread are not representative of GameTZ or @Bill (lest he states something), this is not intended as financial advice., etc.
KCPenguins
* 14-Jun-2022(#2)In more important news, Little Caesars just replaced Pizza Hut as the NFL's official pizza sponsor. Unpopular opinion, LC's is better than Pizza Hut and Poppa John's. (Full disclosure, I never liked Poppa John's pizza)
I found this as a bit of a surprise as I didn't think they'd pony up the dough (a'hem).
Pizza Pizza!
Kommie
6-Jul-2022(#5)So who's actually gonna play QB for the Browns this year?
shadyfozzie
6-Jul-2022(#6)Kommie wrote:> So who's actually gonna play QB for the Browns this year?
Brisett
KCPenguins
6-Jul-2022(#7)shadyfozzie wrote:> Baker Mayfield to Panthers
That's fudging garbage by the Browns. They could've traded him months ago for this or more to Carolina or Seattle. Now he has two months to learn a new offense and develop chemistry.
Watson getting suspended, though Kraft got off (a'hem). Can't wait to see this crapshow for the brown.
KCPenguins
6-Jul-2022(#9)Bighab wrote:> Carolina vs the Browns week 1 will be a very interesting game to watch for sure.
>
Probably why they waited to trade...
KCPenguins
22-Jul-2022(#10)Can't believe the Cards made Murray the 2nd highest paid qb.
Preseason starts in less than 2 weeks.
back4more
22-Jul-2022(#11)KCPenguins wrote:> Can't believe the Cards made Murray the 2nd highest paid qb.
>
> Preseason starts in less than 2 weeks.
If they over paid on Murray imagine what Lamar will get. I wouldnt pay either top 10 money, I want a passer not a runner at QB.
KCPenguins
22-Jul-2022(#12)back4more wrote:> KCPenguins wrote:
>> Can't believe the Cards made Murray the 2nd highest paid qb.
>>
>> Preseason starts in less than 2 weeks.
>
> If they over paid on Murray imagine what Lamar will get. I wouldnt pay either top
> 10 money, I want a passer not a runner at QB.
Just think, by this time next year it's possible Mahomes and Allen will be near the bottom of top ten NFL QB salaries. Lamar, Russ, Herbert, Burrow all have two years or less. If Ryan can do well for the Colts he could easily ask for an extension too.
So many talented QBs... the AFC is stacked with young talent!
Kommie
25-Jul-2022(#14)Looks like it's only for the local region only, good luck if you like an out of market team.
KCPenguins
25-Jul-2022(#15)Kommie wrote:> Looks like it's only for the local region only, good luck if you like an out of market
> team.
Good catch. I don't know if the page updated or if I just goofed. I could have sworn it said out of market for regular season too. I also swear it said you got replays with commercials.
If it allows you to watch all prime time games (ESPN, Amazon) I still will probably do it. I think Chiefs-Chargers is Amazon.
KCPenguins
* 29-Jul-2022(#16)Kyler Murray drama is hilarious. 2nd Highest paid QB, then it leaks his contract has a film study clause. Murray tries to downplay it initially but ultimately turns it personal. Team removes the clause. Media not going to forget for some time. Can't wait for the first reporter with the balls to ask him if he studied enough after a loss. lol
He repeatedly defended his work ethic, saying he wouldn't be where he is now if he didn't study. Funny thing is, if his work ethic and study habits were what he says they are then he should have read the contract and had the insulting clause removed BEFORE he signed it.
KCPenguins
* 11-Aug-2022(#17)I did the trial for NFL+... what a crapshow. Nothing works. No customer service to be found. Should have known better.
Hopefully I don't have to do a charge back. In an endless loop of sign up, good news you're already signed up! Want to watch live? Sign in/up. Good news, you're already signed up! No live video/audio.
Way worse than Nintendo Online...
Edit: I finally got a ticket opened this morning, they sent a cookie cute response asking for more info, and ~4 hours after I replied they sent a follow up email with the same thing, and a few minutes later they sent another email saying my issue had been resolved. Garbage.
Edit 2: Wow they responded to my request to not close the request by opening a new request and immediately merging it into the first thus closing it with 0 communication.
KCPenguins
18-Aug-2022(#18)Desaun Watson finally knows his fate. 11 Games, $5M fine. Hopefully this is the last of all that BS and we can somewhat get back to football, but I doubt it.
sa330206
18-Aug-2022(#19)KCPenguins wrote:> Desaun Watson finally knows his fate. 11 Games, $5M fine. Hopefully this is the
> last of all that BS and we can somewhat get back to football, but I doubt it.
The browns trade for him has to be one of the worst of all time especially considering the guaranteed money. Assuming he doesnt get in more trouble it will be nearly 2 years since hes played. Not only did they pay him a boatload of money, they gave up a bunch of draft picks too. Its probably the most Browns thing ever...whoever made that trade should be fired.
KCPenguins
22-Aug-2022(#20)Anyone doing fantasy leagues this year? I'm really struggling in mock drafts. Also planning on trying to get Pacheco late in all my drafts. KC doesn't run for crap, but he should catch some dump offs and has homerun potential. I think he is the #1 rb before midseason. I also think KC's defense could be a viable option at your lamid-season.
I'm usually a pessimist, but I'm actually optimistic KC will surprise all the doubters. I think KC's offense won't miss a beat without Tyreek. No doubt Hill was great on the field, but their wr depth is the best I've ever seen in KC.
What rookies/sleepers are you all targeting?
shadyfozzie
22-Aug-2022(#21)I'm going wr heavy in my auction drafts. More teams are rb by committee nowadays, with only like 5 teams with solid #1s.. it's pretty bare when saquon barkley is still going in the top 7 at rb
KCPenguins
23-Aug-2022(#22)shadyfozzie wrote:> I'm going wr heavy in my auction drafts. More teams are rb by committee nowadays,
> with only like 5 teams with solid #1s.. it's pretty bare when saquon barkley is
> still going in the top 7 at rb
What do you see as your top 5?
KCPenguins
29-Aug-2022(#23)This is the least prepared I've been for fantasy football. Had my first draft last night, second is tonight. Results from last night (1 pt PPR, auction):
QB Rodgers
QB/WR/RB/TE Carr
WR Hill
RB Mixon
TE Waller
WR/TE McLaurin
WR/RB Elliott
K (Nobody Yet)
Def Bal
Bench
Metcalf
M Thomas
Renfrow
Gibson
Pierce
Etienne Jr
I need to drop one for a kicker, maybe 2 if Waller doesn't play. I'm tempted to pick up Pacheco as well. I don't know what's going on with Gibson. I read they are planning on using him for kick returns, so not sure if he's viable. Renfrow is another drop candidate since I have Carr and Waller.
shadyfozzie
29-Aug-2022(#24)Keep renfrow, he's a ppr dream. Trade Metcalf, Seattle's gonna be terrible
KCPenguins
29-Aug-2022(#25)I'm probably dropping Gibson to get a K. Didn't realize he was benched for a rookie, though that rookie got shot twice yesterday so maybe it's worth hanging onto him. lol
KCPenguins
* 8-Sep-2022(#26)Unsurprisingly the defending SB champion LA home team Rams are being ousted in their home field by small market Buffalo fans...
KCPenguins
11-Sep-2022(#27)A lot of interesting games today.
KCPenguins
* 18-Sep-2022(#29)Miami-Baltimore turning into one heck of a game.
Edit 1: They Lance carted off... 9rs about to win a game.
Edit 2: Jesus, Dallas must have a bounty on Burrow. Also their O-line is trash, much like the Cardinals.
Edit 3: Crazy ending in the Cards game. Dude damn near pissed the game winning scoop and score away. Wtf?
KCPenguins
* 19-Sep-2022(#30)Some crazy games. Flacco playing like his SB year, doing just enough. The Tyreek trade bought Miami 1 W so far. Jimmy G looking to get the 9rs back to the playoffs, dude is a derelict Alex Smith. Colts look like trash with Matt Ryan for reasons I don't know. Arizona woke up.
back4more
* 19-Sep-2022(#31)And disappointments left and right. Broncos & Russ are looking rough. Bengals are letting Burrow get demolished. As bad as the Jaguars have been they have beaten the Colts in Jacksonville for 8 straight years. Raiders are ….. ah, who cares, it’s the Raiders.
Feeb
29-Sep-2022(#33)Gypsy wrote:> Maaan that Tua situation is fudgeed up
Yeah. They tried to cheat protocol and killed him. Should cool the woke / killing the sport fudges.
Gypsy
* 29-Sep-2022(#34)Feeb wrote:> Gypsy wrote:
>> Maaan that Tua situation is fudgeed up
>
> Yeah. They tried to cheat protocol and killed him. Should cool the woke / killing
> the sport fudges.
They claimed it was a back injury (bullcrap) but they also activated their 3rd string QB before the game tonight so they absolutely knew they were playing with fire. Disgusting really.
ETA: source
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/09/29/t... KCPenguins
30-Sep-2022(#36)He said he passed the protocol, so he's a part of it too if so.
Kommie
30-Sep-2022(#37)When players lie just to play, it's more than the NFL being the NFL.
KCPenguins
30-Sep-2022(#38)I just watched it now. Looked like a clean tackle. Could just be a freak thing like Chargers TE Parnham last year. Hope Tua turns out ok; I'm sure there will be no shenanigans with the medical staff going forward if there even was any in the past week.
KCPenguins
1-Oct-2022(#40)Gypsy wrote:Team doc fired that cleared Tue.
KCPenguins
* 2-Oct-2022(#41)Didn't see what happened to Jones, but he got hurt. Tyrod came in and got in concussion protocol. Jones comes back in and lines up at wr 3 straight plays in wildcat. 4th play he lines up in shotgun and hands it off. Field goal. This turd of a game could be more interesting than the Buf-Bal rainfest.
KCPenguins
* 9-Oct-2022(#42)Kinda glad the Giants knocked off GB. Rodgers is such a giant douche who needs to stop doing interviews/podcasts/etc.
The new concussion protocol is going to get really annoying. Pulled a few already. Cousins gets hit in the head, clearly can't get up on TV, lineman picks him up and he plays the next snap.
Edit 2: Wow, refs fudgeed the Falcons out of a chance...
KCPenguins
15-Oct-2022(#43)This is probably the worst year for the NFL that I can recall since I've been watching, which is a shame as it's probably the most talented overall. Amazon Prime is a disaster. Reffing is the worst I've seen. Coverage is largely terrible. Damn near all of the media is playing TMZ. Socialmedia being it's usual septic tank. Players doing stupid crap more than normal. Normal amount of injuries.
back4more
15-Oct-2022(#44)What I can't stand about Amazon is the broadcast team.
McCaffrey is on the block. Will an elite team make run?
KCPenguins
16-Oct-2022(#46)back4more wrote:> What I can't stand about Amazon is the broadcast team.
>
> McCaffrey is on the block. Will an elite team make run?
Reportedly the Rams, 9rs, Broncos and Bills have called. Only the Broncos have the cap room currently with the 9rs close. Do any of the teams aside from the Bills even have a first round pick?
back4more
16-Oct-2022(#47)Nope, not according to CBS sports. They show that the dolphins have the 49ers pick, Seattle has Broncos pick, and lions have rams pick.
KCPenguins
16-Oct-2022(#48)Rams will go 7 straight seasons without a 1st round pick. Go for 10!
shadyfozzie
* 17-Oct-2022(#49)Man, CMC in the 49ers offense would be sick.. imagine deebo on one side, CMC on the other side of the backfield. Teams wouldn't know what to do
KCPenguins
17-Oct-2022(#50)shadyfozzie wrote:> Man, CMC in the 49ers offense would be sick.. imagine deebo on one side, CMC on the
> other side of the backfield. Teams wouldn't know what to do
Play them in one the 6-8 games they are both out injured. lol
shadyfozzie
17-Oct-2022(#51)Only if they play defense lol
back4more
20-Oct-2022(#52)shadyfozzie wrote:> Man, CMC in the 49ers offense would be sick.. imagine deebo on one side, CMC on the
> other side of the backfield. Teams wouldn't know what to do
Happy birthday, merry Christmas @shadyfozzie . CMC traded to the 49ers. Let’s see what they can do with him.
KCPenguins
21-Oct-2022(#54)Carolina going all in on rebuild. Be interesting to see what CMC does in SF with Jimmy G if he can stay healthy. Feels like they shouldn't have gone for broke with Lance.
incubus421
7-Nov-2022(#56)Thoughts from last night's game:
I don't think I've ever seen the Chiefs lose a coin toss. I'm not of the mind that these games are rigged, but have we still not thought of a method less arbitrary to decide who gets the ball first in overtime? Why not just use the defer rule from the start of the game? If you kicked it to begin with, you get it at half, if you got it at half, you kick it in OT? It's too much of a momentum shift to leave it up to chance.
Also, quite a questionable call on the Kelce PI. The defender has a right to his space. Jamming him and tossing him to the side by his helmet seemed more like Offensive PI to me.
Other recent thoughts:
Refs still struggling to get calls consistently right. I see plenty of soft hits get called for roughing and plenty of rough hits go unflagged. PI is and always will be all over the place. That said, that is just the nature of the game. You see good calls, you see bad calls, some will be for your team, others against them. No one is ever going to get every call right 100% of the time, and fans are never going to agree with every call 100% of the time. Refs can't win and I would hate to have their job. I can't stand when you see a blatantly obvious penalty get called, but because it's against the home team, the crowd just erupts in booing. All reason goes out the window if it's against 'your' team. Sadly, it's just the nature of our society right now.
Speaking of booing, as a Patriots fan, I was ashamed of the booing of Mac Jones and chanting for Zappe a couple weeks ago. Every fan base has a vocal enough portion of asshats. Good job ruining a young QBs confidence. and good job to Bill and the coaching staff for putting Zappe into a bad ballgame just to ruin his confidence as well. That whole game/situation was a train wreck.
Despite the ups and down of the season, and seeing many decent teams struggle (Packers, Colts, Rams, Buccaneers), and typically struggling teams play well (Washington, Jets, Giants, Seahwaks). My biggest takeaway from this season is that:
NFL fans en masse are insufferable!
back4more
7-Nov-2022(#58)Frank Reich fired and Jeff Saturday named interim head coach of the Indianapolis Colts. I think that is most bizarre coaching hire I have ever seen in the NFL.
Gypsy
7-Nov-2022(#59)back4more wrote:> Frank Reich fired and Jeff Saturday named interim head coach of the Indianapolis
> Colts. I think that is most bizarre coaching hire I have ever seen in the NFL.
Absolutely absurd move and being roasted as such from what I've seen so far.
incubus421
7-Nov-2022(#60)I like Jeff Saturday, but it seems his credentials for coaching the Colts are "I played there for a long time". I guess he coached at a small Christian Academy for a few years. Let's see what he can do!
KCPenguins
7-Nov-2022(#61)incubus421 wrote:> Also, quite a questionable call on the Kelce PI. The defender has a right to his
> space. Jamming him and tossing him to the side by his helmet seemed more like Offensive
> PI to me.
>
>
I saw a lot of complaints this morning. One video linked had the perfect still image as a preview showing the Titans player with his hands wrapped in Kelce's jersey clearly holding him. lol Perhaps it should have been offsetting again?
I take the mentality that everything evens out in the long run. The Chiefs had more penalties and more penalty yards in the game... so it wasn't 1-sided.
KCPenguins
5-Dec-2022(#63)AFC Playoff Standings after Week 13
1. Bills
2. Chiefs
3. Ravens
4. Titans
5. Bengals
6. Dolphins
7. Jets
In the hunt
Patriots
Chargers
Raiders
Browns
(Other teams not going to make it... I considered putting the Browns here based on Watson's preseason/1 game regular season play, but they have a lot of talent so I'll give them another week.)
Eliminated
Texans
AFC Playoffs will be interesting.
KCPenguins
* 6-Dec-2022(#64)NFC
1. Eagles
2. Vikings
3. 9rs
4. Bucs
5. 'Boys
6. Giants
7. 'Hawks or Commanders
In the Hunt:
Hawks or Commanders
...
Lions
Packers
Falcons
(Other teams not going to make it)
Out:
Bears
I'd pick the lions as the long shot to make a WC. Vikings clinch the division with a win or tie. That's pretty crazy with 4 weeks to go.
KCPenguins
* 6-Dec-2022(#66)Makes sense. Mariota probably gets them an early mid-round pick. See what you got in Ridder, if it doesn't work out you improve your draft slot.
back4more
6-Dec-2022(#67)I view the Chiefs like I view the GS Warriors, if they play their game like they should they can beat the crap out of anyone, anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills or Eagles win it all either. Vikings would be fun after all they've been through. I guess the Bengals and Bucs could get hot with the talent they both have. Cowboys, no please, and I think they'll choke anyway. I guess if I could pick who I would want to watch in the SB it would be Dolphins vs Eagles. Both are exciting and it would be a fresh air kinda matchup. If I was betting my money I'd take the Chiefs over the Eagles.
incubus421
7-Dec-2022(#68)Despite the Garapollo injury, I have to think the 49ers will remain in the mix. That defense is stout! They just need Mr. Irrelevant or whoever else to dink and dunk to a few of the best open field runners in the league, and not turn the ball over. They might only win 20-10, but it will work.
I hope it's not the Bills, the Chiefs, or even the Eagles in the end. 49ers/Vikings/Buccaneers vs Dolphins/Bengals/Titans. I just have personal vendetta's against the other teams. Eagles were the last ones to beat the Pats in the SB, Bills are obviously in the Pats division, and while Mahomes is good, I can't stand the commentators when he's playing. Please don't say, "no one can do that" when he "no looks", or under hands a ball or side arms one, or even just scrambles....they can almost ALL do that these days! Of course, I realize my hypocrisy, many would say the same thing about the commentators ogling over Brady through the years.
Speaking of which, that 5 minute comeback by Brady over the Saints the other night was exactly what I've been missing since Brady left New England. Fun to watch.
KCPenguins
* 7-Dec-2022(#69)incubus421 wrote:> ... while Mahomes is good, I can't stand the commentators when he's
> playing. Please don't say, "no one can do that" when he "no looks", or under hands
> a ball or side arms one, or even just scrambles....they can almost ALL do that these days!
Sounding like Aaron Rodgers here. lol
I can't stand it when the Chiefs get a Tony Romo game. He constantly gushes about Mahomes to the point it sounds half sarcastic, except it isn't as he doesn't stop. And like you said it's not just him. They all gush over great plays, but as you said many can be made by a lot of qb's in the league, like a shovel pass. It takes away from the plays that not many QBs in the NFL can make, which are more rare.
I've said it before, but Mahomes made 3 of the 5 best throws I've seen a Chief's QB throw in my 30+ years as a fan in his rookie preseason. While that speaks to his talent, it also speaks to the lack of arm talent this franchise has had in my lifetime. I was on board with Mahomes from then on.
> Of course, I realize my hypocrisy, many would say the same thing about the
> commentators ogling over Brady through the years....
>
Whoa, a Pats fan that gets it. (I kid) The only difference I see is how quickly Mahomes got backlash. I gave Brady 4-5 years of starting before I was like enough already with the holier than though crap. With Mahomes it started after the SB (year 2 starting). Probably social media is to blame for both overexposure and excessive ridicule.
The dude has done nearly everything the right way. He's humble, says the right things, doesn't throw his teammates under the bus, pokes fun at himself, takes the blame for bad plays. He even passed on numerous endorsements his rookie season because he didn't want to be a distraction and he wanted to focus on learning from Smith and Reid. It's a shame the media (mistakenly?) did him dirty by going the god Brady route.
KCPenguins
17-Dec-2022(#71)Vikings looked like dogcrap, then completed the greatest comeback in NFL history while still not looking great.
KCPenguins
17-Dec-2022(#73)Rams are probably more disappointing this year... SB Champ to giving the Lions a likely top 5 pick. Then there's the Broncos who many picked to win the division. Projected by Vegas to win ~10, likely to give Seattle a top 3 pick. Then there's the Packers... presumptive favorites to roll their division on their way to a 1 or 2 seed... fact is every year there are surprises and disappointments, but only a few surprises. This year is not much different. KC, Buffalo, Miami, and Cinnci are the major contenders. SD and Bal hanging around if they can stay healthy. Titans, Pats and Jets looking to play upset.
It's Philli and SF in the NFC. Dallas could contend, but it's Dallas. Minnesota is cursed. Detroit is ascending. The Giants and Command are battling for an upset game. Seahawks are waining..
Will be an interesting playoffs. Obviously rooting for the Chiefs. Can't be mad at a Buffalo or Cinnci win as things stand now. Brock or Jalen winning one would be fun, and frankly Dallas wouldn't disappoint me. If Detroit makes it and KC loses that's my team.
KCPenguins
* 17-Dec-2022(#75)Feeb wrote:> Saw it coming with the rams. They sold out for a SB. It’s downhill from here. And
> Russell Wilson has been failing upward for a while.
I saw it with Russ too, but preseason I saw "expert" after "expert" picking everyone but the Chiefs winning that division, with some picking the Chiefs out of the playoffs without Hill... lol
The Rams lost partimers Von and OBJ. A couple other solid players. I thought they'd still contend, especially with the Seahawks going to Geno, SF going to Lance, and the Cards being the Cards. I'd have picked the 9rs if they went with a healthy Jimmy, as a Clones fan I'm not surprised Purdy is leading that team to interim success. He was great for the clones. Hope he can show enough to earn a chance to be their starter. He fits in with that SF QB mentality... not the most gifted, but enough talent, smart and gutsy.
back4more
17-Dec-2022(#77)So Matt Ryan is now the losing QB of the biggest regular season comeback, and the losing QB in the biggest comeback in the super bowl. I know he doesn't play defense but the Colts did have 5 field goals to just one offensive TD.
citizen_zane
18-Dec-2022(#78)KCPenguins wrote:I'd have picked the 9rs if they went with a healthy Jimmy,
> as a Clones fan I'm not surprised Purdy is leading that team to interim success.
> He was great for the clones. Hope he can show enough to earn a chance to be their
> starter. He fits in with that SF QB mentality... not the most gifted, but enough
> talent, smart and gutsy.
I'm a lifelong Niners fan and am pretty happy with what I've been seeing this year, save for the Injury to Garoppolo. I've always liked him, but he has been prone to making bonehead mistakes in the past. However, this year, he's been about the best that I've ever seen him. I was very happy to see where the team was going until he broke his foot. Luckily this rookie is doing a wonderful job so far. I've been pleasantly surprised by Purdy. With our superb defense and wonderful arsenal, I think he can be successful into leading us on our continuing quest for six.
KCPenguins
* 18-Dec-2022(#79)Houston so banged up playing their back-up qb at starting wr... or Lovie trying to innovate?
KCPenguins
18-Dec-2022(#80)Houston taking it to the Chiefs. Got them unraveled.